Victoria Election: Labor fights to hold power

as One Nation rises

November 2026 The upcoming Victorian state election is shaping up to be one of the most complex and unpredictable contests in recent Australian political history. The Labor Party is fighting to remain in government, the Coalition is seeking a return to power, while One Nation is emerging as a significant political force. Labor has governed Victoria for the past 12 years, but its support has declined considerably. State Premier Ben Carroll took office less than three months ago, replacing Jacinta Allan in July. The leadership change has added further uncertainty to an already challenging election campaign. The opposition, led by Liberal leader Jess Wilson, is ahead in opinion polls, but securing government remains a difficult task. The Coalition needs to win at least 16 additional seats to secure a majority, while also defending electorates where One Nation is gaining support. The rise of One Nation is expected to be one of the defining features of the election. The party’s strong performance in South Australia in March, where it won four seats in the House of Assembly and overtook the Liberals in the statewide vote, demonstrated its capacity to disrupt traditional electoral patterns. Victoria could present an even greater test for the major parties. Labor has traditionally relied on a “red wall” across Melbourne’s northern and western suburbs, regional cities and working-class communities. However, at the 2022 election, Labor’s vote fell significantly in some of its safest seats, with a substantial share of its lost support shifting to minor parties and independent candidates. The electorate is now increasingly fragmented, with Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and other political forces competing for voters’ support. The Greens and independent candidates could further complicate the contest. Victoria’s Legislative Assembly has 88 seats, with 45 required for a majority. The Coalition must retain its existing seats while winning additional electorates beyond the traditional battlegrounds in Melbourne’s eastern and south-eastern suburbs. At the same time, it faces the risk of losing seats to One Nation in regional areas, particularly in electorates where the Nationals are vulnerable. If the Coalition fails to secure a majority, it may need to negotiate with One Nation or attempt to govern without an outright majority. Labor, meanwhile, will seek to limit its losses, with 15 of its seats currently held on margins of between 7 and 9 per cent. The election will attract national attention, with the New South Wales state election scheduled to follow less than four months later. The next federal election window opens in August 2027. The result will provide important insights into the growing fragmentation of Australia’s electorate and could offer valuable lessons for Anthony Albanese, Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson ahead of future electoral contests.

Greek Tribune Adelaide, South Australia