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War could lead Australia to a disastrous situation
April 2026
Experts warn that soaring fuel prices may be just the beginning, with Australia facing a potentially
disastrous situation. First fuel, then food, followed by cars, computers, and construction
materials—everyday costs are set to rise if shipping is disrupted. Australia is highly dependent on maritime
trade, with up to 99% of imports and exports transported by cargo vessels, including critical raw materials
like iron ore.
The second week of the third Gulf War has highlighted Australia’s vulnerability. The Strait of Hormuz faces
threats from missiles, kamikaze boats, and mines, while the Red Sea’s Gate of Tears and the Suez Canal
remain high-risk routes. Attacks on commercial shipping, with vessels set ablaze or abandoned, have left
only Iranian and Russian “shadow fleet” ships navigating the Persian Gulf safely. Global shipping fuel is
running low as companies panic-buy, and carriers like Maersk have introduced new fuel surcharges of
$A280–$A840 per container.
Dr Sean Andrews, a former Royal Australian Navy officer, warns that Australia’s dependence on seaborne
trade makes it systemically vulnerable. The nation has minimal sovereign shipping, limited fuel reserves,
and supply chains stretching over 10,000 kilometres. “When global arteries seize, Australia chokes,” he
writes, noting that vulnerabilities span energy, critical infrastructure, and supply chains, not just military
threats.
The risk extends beyond oil. Fertiliser, crucial for farming, depends on natural gas and sulphur, much of
which is now stuck in the Persian Gulf. Queensland agriculturalist Dr Hamed Zakikhani highlights that rising
fertiliser costs affect planting decisions, and shipping disruptions threaten both imports of farm inputs and
exports of food. Australian grain, canola, and meat exports are already facing longer shipping times and
bottlenecks, while global supply chains for rice and coffee are similarly delayed, illustrating the cascading
effects of maritime disruption.
Raelene Lockhorst of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute notes that closures like the Strait of Hormuz
drive global price increases, affecting fuel, fertiliser, and manufactured goods.
Greek Tribune
Adelaide, South Australia